Foundations 2025: a value model for evaluating future air and space forces
Article Abstract:
The US Air Force Chief of Staff Gen Ronald R. Fogleman launched the Air Force 2025 Study to identify the ideas and concepts that would enable the nation to bolster air and space dominance in 2025. The research introduced a Value-Focused Thinking model called Foundations 2025, which was used to determine which of the generated concepts have the greatest promise. The value model development model covered all systems that can contribute to air and space supremacy, involved the participation of more than 200 military experts, and adopted a planning horizon that stretched 30 years into the future until 2025. This model featured five tiers and considered six possible scenarios. The tiers were related to the objective, functions, tasks, subtasks and force qualities. The silver standard value hierarchy development method used in the study was critical to the success of this undertaking.
Publication Name: Management Science
Subject: Business, general
ISSN: 0025-1909
Year: 1998
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Maximum entropy aggregation of expert predictions
Article Abstract:
A maximum entropy framework is developed for combining expert opinions where these opinions relate to the prediction of the result of uncertain event. This framework applies the maximum entropy approach of Levy and Delic (1994), but differs from this approach in three important aspects. The first is that the new approach involves opinions expressed as predictions of outcomes of events rather than as subjective probability estimates or odds-ratio estimates on the occurrence of a random event. The second difference is that the framework provides a clear definition of expert competence and demonstrates how competence measures can be integrated in combining individual forecasts. The third is that the new approach considers potential dependence between the experts' opinions. The prescriptive approach is general and can apply to cases involving the aggregation problem.
Publication Name: Management Science
Subject: Business, general
ISSN: 0025-1909
Year: 1996
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