Sequential choice under ambiguity: intuitive solutions to the armed-bandit problem

Article Abstract:

A study is conducted to investigate the process by which people learn from feedback when making repetitive choices among alternatives that are ambiguous. Subjects in an experiment are asked to solve a problem similar to the classic armed-bandit problem of dynamic decision theory. They are required to repeatedly choose between two hypothetical airlines. One has an on-time a priori departure probability while the other has an ambiguous probability the true value of which can be determined only by going on sample trips on the airlines. The subjects are asked to choose in a manner that optimizes the total number of one-time departures over a set planning timespan. Results demonstrate departures from optimality. This includes the inclination to underexperiment with promising choices and overexperiment with unpromising choices, and an inclination to progressively shift between airlines as the average base rate of departures drops.

Airlines, Consumer preferences

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Aspiration level adaptation: an empirical exploration

Article Abstract:

The development of aspiration levels in senior management groups of simulated organizations over prescribed time periods is examined using the attainment discrepancy model. Behavior adaption to performance feedback under the model's goal directed structure, is facilitated by simple decision rules. The model is observed to be highly descriptive of aspiration formation and to serve as a source of information concerning the applicability of expectation models to organizational goal formation. The model further provides indications of a potential link between aspirations and expectations. There are indications of possible optimistic bias in the formation of aspiration levels with behavior adaptation showing a tendency for incremental inconsistencies. The likelihood of consistently rational behavior outcomes developing, over longer periods of time, through adaptive learning is also noted.

Level of aspiration

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Retrieving and transferring embodied data: implications for the management of interdependence within organizations

Article Abstract:

A study was conducted to examine the influence of sticky data on the governance of interdependent tasks. It is argued that downstream agents can retrieve embodied information since the information is less sticky in relation to the downstream task. Information stickiness refers to the measure of retrieval and transfer information task and, as such, scholars think that several contextual factors influence this cost. Therefore, a model that predicts the retrieval of information, the time of extraction and the manner by which the information will be used was developed. Qualitative and quantitative data from an electronics industry segment were used to test the model. Results demonstrate several implications for the governance of interdependent tasks.

Organizational Methods NEC, Operations research, Management science, Organizational change

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