The association between consensus of beliefs and trading activity surrounding earnings announcements

Article Abstract:

An analysis of 611 earnings announcements of 90 firms listed on the New York Stock Exchange was conducted to investigate the association between changes in consensus market beliefs and changes in abnormal weekly trading activity at the time of corporate announcements. Research results reveal that changes in the level of consensus and revisions in analysts' mean forecasts are positively associated with the degree of change in abnormal trading activity, but that there is no link between changes and the level of pre-disclosure of information. Trading volume reactions reflect the revision of beliefs due to surprises in earnings announcements and the consensus of individuals' revisions.

Stocks, Dividends, Stock-exchange, Stock exchanges, Financial analysts

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Additional evidence on the accuracy of analyst forecasts before and after voluntary management earnings forecasts

Article Abstract:

The relative accuracy of analysts' earnings forecasts prepared before and after voluntary management earnings forecasts is examined. Results indicate that management forecasts are more accurate than prior analysts' forecasts. Posterior analysts' forecasts are no more accurate than management forecasts. Accuracy differences are likely to be a result of inside information held by the manager at the time of the forecast's disclosure.

Models, United States, Forecasts and trends, Management, Economic forecasting, Wages, Wages and salaries, Business forecasting, Statistical hypothesis testing, Prediction theory

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