Using order statistics to estimate real estate bid distributions

Article Abstract:

The optimum property sales strategy can be computed according to the estimate of the bid distributions that are made for the property. The better the forecast of the distribution, the greater the projected return will be from the use of the optimal strategy. An order statistics technique is given that can be used to estimate the parameters of the distribution. The method shows how the posted sales price can have an effect on the sales price information used.

Usage, Economic aspects, Real estate, Letting of contracts, Competitive bidding, Real property, Sales management, Order statistics

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"Lottery equivalents": reduction of the certainty effect problem in utility assessment

Article Abstract:

A procedure for assessing utility functions is described. The advantage to this procedure over more conventional methods is that this procedure is not dependent on the probability level used in the question posed. This procedure compares lotteries with other lotteries rather than fixed amounts, it does not chain responses, and it controls range and reference point distortions by using 'elementary lotteries.'

Operations research, Lotteries

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Another look at an axiomatic approach to expert resolution

Article Abstract:

A series of axioms were proposed by Morris that can be used to combine probability assessments made by experts. However, one of these axioms is not satisfactory. The use of this axiom results in conflict between the continuous and discrete cases which vanishes in an organized technique.

Analysis, Probabilities, Probability theory, Distribution (Probability theory), Axiom of choice

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