Risk analysis of catastrophes using experts' judgements: an empirical study on risk analysis of major civil aircraft accidents in Europe
Article Abstract:
The use of expert judgments in making a risk assessment of civil aircraft accidents in Europe was examined. Specifically, the judgments of 21 experts are calibrated and aggregated using several theoretical models based on Bayesian statistics to determine their future risk forecasts. In addition, two techniques to approximate the analysis error variances of the experts are also introduced. The results show that the models 'work satisfactorily.'
Publication Name: European Journal of Operational Research
Subject: Business, international
ISSN: 0377-2217
Year: 1995
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The influence of perceived stock value price histories in the mean-variance-instability model
Article Abstract:
Research is presented concerning the interpretation of real time utility functions in the assessment of risk by investors through the utilization of optimization techniques influenced by penalty weighted instability matrices.
Publication Name: European Journal of Operational Research
Subject: Business, international
ISSN: 0377-2217
Year: 2001
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A time-integrated Richardson model
Article Abstract:
Research is presented describing the development of a Richardson equation based risk assessment model using time-integration to produce defence strategies.
Publication Name: European Journal of Operational Research
Subject: Business, international
ISSN: 0377-2217
Year: 2001
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