Growth, inflation, and interest rates projected to fall

Article Abstract:

Economic predictions for the second quarter of 1989 through the first quarter of 1991 indicate that a mild recession is still forecasted for 1990, but the economic decline resulting from the recession is predicted to be very small. Forecasts indicate that housing starts are expected to number fewer than on e million in 1989, with further declines in 1990. Real growth in the economy is forecasted to be 3% in 1989, but it is predicted to fall to 0.8% in 1990. Other predictions for 1989-1991 indicate that oil prices are expected to slow; no significant work stoppages are predicted; and no changes are predicted for the cost-of-living government program.

Economic policy

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Low growth to almost no growth late in 1987

Article Abstract:

The economic forecast for the US from the third quarter 1986 through the second quarter 1988 is presented. It is unlikely that the GNP will grow by much more than 2.5 percent. Much of the stimulus from falling oil prices has already occurred, and consumer spending appears to have reached the saturation point. Trade imbalances are continuing despite the depreciation of the dollar. The slow growth of the economy means that the government deficits will continue.

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Consumer and investor hesitancy raises recessionary risk

Article Abstract:

US economic growth should be around 1.7 percent for 1988, slowing to 1.1 percent in 1989. The Oct 1987 stock market crash has changed consumer and investor sentiment, which may lead to lower-than-anticipated interest rates and inflation. The stock market crash occurred because the gap between market values and fundamental values became too wide. The crash may slow the growth of export sales from the US, and may lead to an increase in household savings.

Recessions

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