Outlook for oil and the global economy

Article Abstract:

The Iraq-Kuwait Conflict has lead to short-term strong oil price increases. If negotiation fails and the West expels the Iraqis from Kuwait and overthrow Saddam Hussein, oil prices will likely fall back to the range of $21 to $25 per barrel. If Saddam Hussein prevails, oil prices are likely to be in the high $30s per barrel. It is most likely the West will prevail in a conflict, but it is unlikely large increases in the price of oil will result in an economic downturn similar to those following the 1973-74 and 1978-79 oil price hikes. The world economy is less vulnerable to higher oil prices for three reasons: real oil prices have declined since the 1980s, oil is not as important to the industrialized nations, and countries have tighter monetary policies, high real interest rates, and more subdued commodity price inflation.

Analysis, Economic forecasting, Iraq-Kuwait Crisis, 1990-1991

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Oil keeps economists on their toes

Article Abstract:

After a quiet decade oil prices appear to becoming volatile again having swung from a fifty year low in December 1998 of less than $10 a barrel to a high of $35 in September 2000. The fluctuations in oil prices despite attempts at control have revealed the difficulties economists face.

Management, Economic policy

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Things can only get better

Article Abstract:

The economic performance and prospects of the 12 countries that form the 'eurozone' are mixed and the potential for growth will depend on enhanced governance and flexibility.

Europe

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