Procedures for revising management judgments forecasts

Article Abstract:

Forecast improvement is often approached by attempting to find the "best" model for a given situation. Less attention has been paid to the possibility of examining past prediction errors for patterns that may suggest forecast adjustments for the future. This empirical study involves one firm's management judgment forecasts for product sales and the attempts made to improve their accuracy by removing certain types of bias. In three of the five series examined, error reduction averaging close to thirty percent occurs as a result of the adjustment procedure. The other two series proved to be relatively free from bias and were therefore not in need of the correction methods described. (Reprinted by permission of the publisher.)

Planning, Corporations

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Examining the effects of regression procedures on the temporal stability of parameter estimates in marketing models

Article Abstract:

This article investigates the temporal stability of parameter estimates by comparing the results obtained from ordinary least squares, ridge, and latent root regression techniques in two models plagued with ill-conditioned data. Ridge regression is found to provide improved individual coefficient stability through time and also to have slightly greater predictive accuracy beyond the original estimation period in both models. Temporal stability of marketing model parameters is important if the model is to prove useful to marketing decision makers in making inferences about the marginal impacts of individual predictor variables. (Reprinted by permission of the publisher.)

Analysis, Estimation theory, Regression analysis, Least squares, Parameter estimation

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A framework for the combination of forecasts

Article Abstract:

A framework for the systematic study of the combination of sales and market forecasts is proposed based on the types of forecasts to be combined and the methods used to combine them. A detailed survey of the literature is given in terms of the developed framework and the general conclusions about the combination of forecasts area are developed. Some future needs for research are also discussed. (Reprinted by permission of the publisher.)

Bibliography, Business forecasting, Sales forecasting

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