An integrated model of the data measurement and data generation processes with an application to consumers' expenditure

Article Abstract:

Aggregate consumption expenditure series in the UK are generated by the Central Statistical Office. These series are regularly revised to account for refinements and new information. However, using different sets of revised data or vintages may have an adverse effect on the predictive power of econometric models. This problem is examined through the use of an integrated model that not only describes the data generation process, but also the data measurement process. The results indicate that using a Kalman filter substantially reduces errors from using early vintages.

Research, Methods, Models, Mathematical models, Consumption (Economics), Economic forecasting, Economic indicators

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Trade as the Engine of Growth in Developing Countries, Revisited

Article Abstract:

Increased trade among developing countries is suggested as a means of sustaining growth. Less developed country (LDCs) growth depends on continued growth of developed countries. Linkages between the two are diminishing as developing countries explore the change from raw materials to manufactured goods.

Developing countries, Growth

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On the Measurement of Intra-Industry Trade

Article Abstract:

Intra-industry trade makes up a large portion of total trade between developed market economy countries. Categorical aggregation is suggested as a means of accurately measuring this trade. Although error is reduced it is not a complete explanation of trade patterns.

International trade, Industrialized countries, Industrial nations

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