Criminal incident prediction using a point-pattern-based density model

Article Abstract:

A multivariate prediction model for hot spots is described. This model relates the features in an area to the predicted occurrence of crimes through the preference structure of criminals. Also a point-pattern based transition density model is used for space-time event predictions.

Criminal behavior, Prediction of, Prediction of criminal behavior, Prediction of criminal behaviour

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Short-term forecasting of crime

Article Abstract:

The usability and possibility of, accurate forecast of a selected crime is described. According to the study, Holt exponential smoothing with monthly seasonality is the most accurate forecast model for precinct-level crime series.

Evaluation, Time-series analysis, Time series analysis, Parameter estimation

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Simple indicators of crime by time of day

Article Abstract:

New indicators are described that summarize hour-of-day variations of crime. To pick the first hour of the day is a basic decision, after which summary indicators are easily defined.

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