Directional accuracy tests of long-term interest rate forecasts
Article Abstract:
A set of one-year forecasts for long-term interest rates are tested for directional accuracy. A chi-square goodness-of fit test reveals that there is a statistically significant difference between the abilities of business economics and academic economists, to predict correctly the direction of change in long-term interest rates.
Publication Name: International Journal of Forecasting
Subject: Economics
ISSN: 0169-2070
Year: 2003
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Evaluating FOMC forecasts
Article Abstract:
The accuracy of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) forecasts relative to private sector forecast is evaluated. The results revealed that FOMC outputs are more accurate than the private sector forecasts and the native model.
Publication Name: International Journal of Forecasting
Subject: Economics
ISSN: 0169-2070
Year: 2003
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Accurace, usefulness and the evaluation of analysts' forecasts
Article Abstract:
The authors finds that forecast immediacy affects both the accuracy and usefulness of forecasts, and the immediacy should be taken in account when forecasting.
Publication Name: International Journal of Forecasting
Subject: Economics
ISSN: 0169-2070
Year: 2003
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