Does seasonality influence the dating of business cycle turnng points?

Article Abstract:

The Markov regime switching model, which is applied to seasonally adjusted data, influences business cycle turning points. In determining whether Markov models make a difference in dating peaks and troughs in the cycle, simulations and two empirical examples were used. For seasonally adjusted data, the model stays to a large degree in a particular regime. Results further show that for unadjusted data, the Markov switching model may be preferred.

Models, Case studies, Business cycles, Markov processes, Seasonal variations (Economics)

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Consideration sets, intentions and the inclusion of "don't know" in a two-stage model for voter choice

Article Abstract:

The determinants of voting behavior for political parties are examined from the comparison of Choice and Probit models.

Germany, Behavior, Political parties, Voting

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