Exchange rates and fundamentals: evidence on long-horizon predictability
Article Abstract:
Evidence shows that long-term changes in log nominal exchange rates have an economically significant predictable component. This is done through the regressions of multiple-period changes in the log exchange rate on its deviation from its fundamental value. Conclusions are drawn from bootstrap distributions generated under the null hypothesis stating the unpredictability of the long exchange rate. This would account for small- sample bias and size distortion in asymptotic tests.
Publication Name: American Economic Review
Subject: Economics
ISSN: 0002-8282
Year: 1995
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Sanctions: some simple analytics
Article Abstract:
A study was conducted to analyze how sanctions work and factors influencing their success. A framework was utilized to integrate advances in the theory of repeated games and bargaining under incomplete information. The study also examined how incomplete information can generate scenarios in which measures are actually imposed. Results indicated the need for an econometric approach in qualifying the effectiveness of sanctions.
Publication Name: American Economic Review
Subject: Economics
ISSN: 0002-8282
Year: 1999
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