Forward markets and changes in macroeconomic performance: the case of oil

Article Abstract:

Oil price shocks may have less effect on overall economic performance since the development of forward markets for this commodity, and changing perceptions of oil stocks as a factor is risk management. Different oil market structures are used to test this idea, and if forward markets are not brought into the picture, the results indicate that it is possible to overstate the multiplier for short term oil prices and their impact on GNP by as much as twofold.

PETROLEUM AND COAL PRODUCTS, Economic aspects, Petroleum industry

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The covariability of productivity shocks across industries

Article Abstract:

Productivity shocks affecting a whole industry are little help in explaining variations in total output for the economy as a whole, following removal of the spuriously cyclical part of total factor productivity or TFP, in line with work carried out by Hall on productivity shocj series. A dynamic model for factor analysis was used to test for covariability, and Standard Industrial Classification was used to identify industries.

Commercial nonphysical research, Testing, Business cycles

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Testing for unit roots with very high frequency spot exchange rate data

Article Abstract:

The results of a test for unit roots using data for foreign exchange markets of the very high frequency type, changing daily, hourly or by the minute, indicate that there is a unit root for hourly and daily data, with a unit root lacking a trend for the bulk of the minute-by minute data. The study backs the theory that unit root properties in time series are preserved through temprally aggregating the time series.

Functions related to deposit banking, Measurement, Foreign exchange

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