Groping for optimal growth

Article Abstract:

A process of adaptive adjustments is modeled to determine whether and how agents can identify their optimal behavior in the long term, even without knowledge of the dynamics of nonlinear dynamic systems nor the exact law of the random variables. Reasonable conditions that yield optimal behavior are provided. The model requires less knowledge or competence than usually presumed in dynamic models and may be regarded as a way of learning, at least during the early stages of optimal growth.

Analysis, Economic development, Mathematical optimization, Optimization theory, Nonlinear theories

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Testing for bubbles and change-points

Article Abstract:

A model for financial asset is presented based on two different types of agents who hold different beliefs. It is noted that though these agents vary in their initial beliefs and prices, over the period they interact, exchange their views and desert their wrong beliefs and forecasting rules. Consequently a bubble like phenomena occurs. The point of change is also examined.

Commodity & service prices, Other General Government Support, Coinage & Currency, Methods, Prices and rates, Money, Economic forecasting, Company pricing policy

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Optimal investment with minimum performance constraints

Article Abstract:

This paper studies the ratio of probability that the investor's current wealth strictly outperforms the benchmark, i.e., how the investment portfolio when constrained performs as well as a stochastic benchmark, compared to when the investor's policy is unconstrained, but subject to paying out a fee at terminal date.

Statistical Data Included, Evaluation, Investments, Benchmarks, Benchmarking

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