The influence of trend strength on directional probablistic currency predictions

Article Abstract:

Comparative analysis of the judgmental forecasting performance of experts and novices using simulated currency series with differing trend strengths is illustrated. This analysis reveals significant effects of trend strength on all aspects of predictive performance with evidence for the hard-easy effect where overconfidence is exhibited on weak trends, while underconfidence is shown on strong trends.

Models, Economic forecasting, Trends

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The effects of feedback on judgmental interval predictions

Article Abstract:

The majority of studies of probability judgment have found that judgments tend to be overconfident. Accordingly, it is proposed that under favourable conditions, provision of appropriate feedback should lead to significant improvements in calibration and the study in this context aims to demonstrate this effect.

Analysis, Influence, Feedback (Psychology), Prediction theory, Feedback (Communication)

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Performance evaluation of judgemental directional exchange rate predictions

Article Abstract:

A method of assessing the efficacy of exchange rate prediction procedures is presented.

United Kingdom, Forecasts, trends, outlooks, Methods, Forecasts and trends, Foreign exchange, Market trend/market analysis, Forecasting

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