Excess capacity in dentistry or a shortage?

Article Abstract:

Many forecasters assert that in light of declining dental school enrollment, reductions in the number of dental schools, and declining numbers of applicants, the need for dentists could exceed the supply. These issues were evaluated. Although first-year enrollment in dental schools declined in actual numbers between 1956 and 1987, the effect of capitation grants to schools, which encourage increased enrollment, inflated the values for the early 1970s, making the subsequent fall-off in enrollments seem steep. If enrollment figures had been projected without consideration of capitation grants, the result would have been a more steady increase in enrollment, then a more gradual drop. A consequence of the larger number of dentists who graduated in the 1970s is a considerable supply of private practitioners. There is little reason to fear a shortage of dentists, whose average work-life is 40 years. In 1990 there were many dentists younger than 40, and by 2010 they will still be practicing. For these practitioners, the years of greatest patient volume and financial rewards lie in the future. Percent capacity utilization refers to the proportion of patients a dentist could treat compared with those actually being treated. This figure is currently approximately 67 percent for dentists between the ages of 45 and 49, and will rise to 81 percent over the next 10 years if other variables remain unchanged. It is also likely that the capacity to treat will increase, since dental technology will improve and patients will be able to be served faster. Shortages in the supply of dentists do not appear likely in the coming years. However, demand may not increase quickly, and is subject to fluctuations in population growth, income, and dental benefits. The above shows that simple analyses of the problem of supply and demand for dental services cannot suffice. (Consumer Summary produced by Reliance Medical Information, Inc.)

Evaluation, Supply and demand

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Looking back on the '80s: a decade of change in dentistry

Article Abstract:

A review is presented of the ways dentists spent their professional time and the salaries they earned during the 1980s, a time of change for the profession. Dental school graduating classes were at their largest in the beginning of the decade; later on, factors such as the declining number of cavities among children and pressure for improved infection control and better waste management procedures exerted dampening effects on future dentists' enthusiasm. Data concerning the proportion of dentists' time spent on different types of care are presented in graphical form; in general, compared with the early 1980s, dentists now spend more time on diagnostic and preventive care, and less on operative dentistry. In hours spent on preventive care per dentist, these changes translate into an increase from 145 hours in the early 1980s to 200 hours annually in 1989. Much of the 8.2 million hours' increase in total dentist hours is the result of the greater current emphasis on preventive care. This has necessitated adding members to the dental office team who, in turn, now earn more than they did a decade ago. The proportion of general dental practitioners who employ full- or part-time dental hygienists grew from 50 percent to 65 percent during the 1980s. Hygienists worked an average of 99 hours each month in 1990, compared with 65 hours in 1983. Their wages rose approximately 2.4 percent per year above inflation during the decade. Increases have also taken place in the fees charged for preventive procedures, with the steepest rise between 1977 and 1990; when the fees for preventive treatment are adjusted to reflect the effects of inflation, however, the increase is not striking (0.1 percent per year). It can be said that the low relative costs of diagnostic and preventive dental treatment represent bargains for patients. (Consumer Summary produced by Reliance Medical Information, Inc.)

Economic aspects, Practice, Dental care, Oral hygiene

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Will earnings continue to rise?

Article Abstract:

Dentists' net earnings (gross income minus expenses) have risen steadily since 1952, except during the wage-price freeze in the early 1970s. The average dentist earned $91,500 in 1989. But will this trend continue, in the climate of the current recession? It appears likely to do so, albeit at a slower rate: the increase between 1988 and 1989 (6.8 percent) was approximately equal to the average for the period 1983 to 1988 (6.9 percent). When the trends in dental earnings are evaluated, taking into account the effects of inflation, the picture appears slightly different, however. Real earnings increased steadily between 1952 and 1972, and then dipped with the freeze that reduced fees but did not affect most aspects of the costs of dental practice. Earnings began to increase again in 1974, and continued to do so until 1977, when a six-year decline started. The rate of this decline was about 3.6 percent each year. This was a period of increased inflation, with high interest rates and operating costs. In addition, the number of dentists in practice increased dramatically. Since the 1981 to 1982 recession, though, dentist's real earnings increased at an annual rate of 3.5 percent through 1988; 1989 real earnings increased by 2 percent over the previous year's. Although increases are likely to continue, the economic recession makes it impossible to determine how great these will be. (Consumer Summary produced by Reliance Medical Information, Inc.)

Compensation and benefits

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