Choosing the number of conditioning events in judgemental forecasting

Article Abstract:

The conditioning events play a major role in the accuracy of a judgemental forecast. An analysis shows that conditioning events with precise estimation yield proves to be beneficial in forecasting than conditioning events that are informative. On the other hand, the need to increase the number of conditioning events in a judgemental forecasting is highly dependent on the estimation accuracy of the marginal probabilities of conditioning events. Finding also shows that a slightly larger number of conditioning events is desirable in forecasting than using too many conditioning events.

Usage, Judgment, Judgment (Psychology), Decomposition (Mathematics)

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Going up-going down: how good are people at forecasting trends and changes in trends?

Article Abstract:

A laboratory-based study designed to determine whether the direction of time series affects forecast accuracy was conducted. The study, which presented controlled experiment of series direction, also investigated the problems of changing trends. Results revealed that problems with downward-sloping series are usually encountered, since they are forecast badly and with a possibility towards dampening. Forecast accuracy was measured in terms of 'smoothed' absolute percentage error.

Research and Development in the Physical, Engineering, and Life Sciences, Noncommercial research organizations, Research & Development-Nonprofits, Nonprofit organizations, Prediction theory

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