Overconfidence in probability and frequency judgments: a critical examination
Article Abstract:
A comparison of probability judgments for single events with judgments of relative frequency revealed little distinction between the two. Both showed significant overconfidence as well as strong correlation with independent judgments of representativeness. The study was conducted using subjects who received a target individual's personality profile and then predicted these target's responses to a set of questions. One group predicted the responses of an individual target and another group made estimates of the relative frequency of responses among all target individuals who shared a certain personality profile.
Publication Name: Organizational Behavior & Human Decision Processes
Subject: Psychology and mental health
ISSN: 0749-5978
Year: 1996
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A strength model of probability judgments for tournaments
Article Abstract:
Probability judgments for sports competitions can be represented in terms of the normalized strength of two competing teams. A simple model, based on an extension of support theory, accurately accounted for the probability judgments of fans of the National Basketball Assn. (NBA). The NBA fans rated the strength of each team in upcoming NBA games. Results show that probability judgments can be derived from direct assessments of strength which make no reference to chance or uncertainty.
Publication Name: Organizational Behavior & Human Decision Processes
Subject: Psychology and mental health
ISSN: 0749-5978
Year: 1996
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Judgments of decision effectiveness: actor-observer differences in overconfidence
Article Abstract:
An analysis of actor-observer differences in decision effectiveness reveals that control over decision outcome has little effect on actor-observer decision differences with feedback playing a crucial role in choice confidence. Both actors and observers were equally confident with their decisions regardless of choice with actor-observer differences cancelling out when observers were asked to offer alternative solutions.
Publication Name: Organizational Behavior & Human Decision Processes
Subject: Psychology and mental health
ISSN: 0749-5978
Year: 1997
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