CDC abandons plan for AIDS survey
Article Abstract:
To more accurately determine the prevalence of HIV (human immunodeficiency virus, associated with AIDS) among the US population, the Centers for Disease Control (CDC) planned a survey. One member of randomly-selected households was to provide a blood sample and fill out a questionnaire. However, these plans have been cancelled because of cost and because this approach would provide no great improvement over other ways of estimating HIV prevalence. The results of one of the pilot projects that was part of the National Household Seroprevalence Survey led to an estimated 0.4 percent seroprevalence, considerably lower than estimates derived from statistical models. The 'non-response bias' (the tendency of individuals to refuse to acknowledge that they are seropositive), although anticipated, ultimately defeated CDC's planned study. Some statisticians believe that cancellation came too quickly after problems developed, and that pilot project data could be used to obtain more accurate estimates. In any event, HIV prevalence will be estimated with the aid of models from now on. One such model employs a method called 'back calculation', which uses the current number of reported AIDS cases to infer past HIV prevalence. These numbers are then used to predict the form of the future epidemic. Such information is essential for planning preventive strategies. The results of several methods of estimation suggest that approximately one million people in the US are infected with HIV. However, this frightening statistic has not aroused extensive public concern, which raises doubts about the motivation of the American public on behalf of AIDS victims. If the one million currently reported victims of this disease has not caused a strong reaction, it is questionable that an estimation of two million victims would make any difference. (Consumer Summary produced by Reliance Medical Information, Inc.)
Publication Name: Science
Subject: Science and technology
ISSN: 0036-8075
Year: 1991
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Is the AIDS epidemic slowing?
Article Abstract:
The rate of reported AIDS cases slowed during the middle months of 1987, particularly among homosexual men who were not using illegal drugs. The 1987 slowdown, in combination with more recent statistics, has justified a 15 percent reduction in predicted AIDS cases for the next three years. This conclusion was drawn from data discussed at a meeting sponsored by the Centers for Disease Control (CDC) held on October 31 and November 1, 1989. Scientists are now debating the reasons for this welcome dip in the upward curve of the AIDS epidemic. Some experts credit drug therapy, but others believe education on preventive behavior has made the difference. Behavior modification efforts for high-risk groups began approximately four years before the rate of increase in new AIDS cases slowed. This is logical, given the average delay period of eight to 10 years from infection to disease development. Regardless of the reason, the new CDC figures predict fewer new AIDS cases in the next several years than were forecasted only a year ago. In 1989, 40,000 to 50,000 new cases are expected and for 1993, 67,000 to 90,000 new cases are predicted. The rate of HIV infection, an event which precedes and is distinct from AIDS diagnosis, will most likely be reduced also. As of late 1989, the number of HIV-infected persons in the United States was between 700,000 and 1,310,000. (Consumer Summary produced by Reliance Medical Information, Inc.)
Publication Name: Science
Subject: Science and technology
ISSN: 0036-8075
Year: 1989
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AIDS and the future
Article Abstract:
New subpopulations are being affected by AIDS as the epidemic enters its second decade, according to a report "AIDS: The Second Decade" (National Academy Press, Washington, D.C., 1990). While prostitutes probably will not serve as the bridge to bring HIV into the heterosexual population, the number of case among women will probably rise in the next decade because more women may be exposed to the virus not only from personal experience with drugs, but through sexual contact with drug users. Many exposed women are of childbearing age, complicating the problem because of the numbers of infants who will be born with AIDS. The Centers for Disease Control is being urged to track the incidence of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection and sexually transmitted disease among prostitutes because prostitutes are at greater risk of acquiring the virus than they are of transmitting it. Among the key factors hampering the fight against AIDS are a reluctance to talk frankly about sex and drugs, and a lack of information about the communities most clearly at risk. (Consumer Summary produced by Reliance Medical Information, Inc.)
Publication Name: Science
Subject: Science and technology
ISSN: 0036-8075
Year: 1990
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