A comparison of the rational expectations and the general-to-specific approaches to modelling the demand for M1

Article Abstract:

The UK demand equation for money was modelled using rational expectations and the general-to-specific strategies. A forward model uses a quadratic cost methodology to incorporate expectations, 'surprise,' and limited lag variables into the money demand function. The backward-looking general-to-specific strategies or error correction model (ECM) was tested using seasonally adjusted data. The forward model had consistent long-run variables, thus proving to be a better procedure than ECM.

Models, Rational expectations (Economics), Money demand

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The determinants of compulsory liquidations in the U.K

Article Abstract:

Recent research has focused on analysing the determinants of aggregate compulsory liquidations in the UK in the period 1972-1989. It has also looked at the effect of the Insolvency Act 1986 on liquidations. It was found that changes in profit margins and interest rates are the main determinants of compulsory liquidations. Insolvencies rise when income gearing increases, with profit margins being affected by rises in real unit labour costs and real input prices.

Analysis

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The determinants of bankruptcies in the U.K.: 1971-1988

Article Abstract:

The factors behind personal bankruptcies in the UK were investigated. Statistics for personal, or consumer bankruptcies for the period 1971 to 1987 were presented. There was a substantial increase from 1974 to 1976 which was followed by a sudden decrease in 1977. From 1980, there was an increasing number of bankruptcies. The major factors for bankruptcies were the quick expansion of credit and increase in price levels, unemployment and in interest rates.

United Kingdom, Economic aspects, Causes of, Consumers

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