Bayesian updates using precursor events

Article Abstract:

Rsearch was conducted on the use of Bayes' Equation to maketechnological forecasts using precursor events quantitative rather than qualitative in nature. Via Bayesian updating, historical data on lag times are used to generate probability distributions which eventually provide quantitative estimates of the likelihoood of different lag times. Bayesian updating can be used in the broader task of priming forecasts using sequences of precursors. It provides a systematic method for integrating new and old data.

Usage, Bayesian statistical decision theory, Bayesian analysis

---

Boom time in forecasting

Article Abstract:

The increasing interest by trade associations, corporations and governments in the future has contributed to enhanced forecasting activities. Business organizations, which previously held technical forecasting in low esteem, have renewed their interest in technological forecasting as a means of clarifying their strategic objectives. One of the most important development in forecasting is the shift from too much focus on technical accuracy to the effective communication of the message.

Forecasting

---

Thirty years of change and stability

Article Abstract:

The passage of three decades since 1969 has seen minimal changes in the methodologies used in technological forecasting. The four major classifications of forecasting continue to be extrapolation, leading indicators, causal models and stochastic methods with much of the innovations coming in the form of better computer hardware and software. As of 1999, the major developments in technological forecasting techniques have been in the use of stochastic models.

Similar abstracts:

• Abstracts: Retooling data processing systems. Selecting hardware. Retooling data systems: overview
• Abstracts: Nation equity: incidental emotions in country-of-origin effects
• Abstracts: Understanding embedded intergroup relations: a comment on Yammarino and Jung. Asian Americans and leadership: a levels of analysis perspective
• Abstracts: Complementarities between exports and human capital in economic growth: evidence from the semi-industrialized countries
• Abstracts: Potential moderating influence of career growth opportunities on careerist orientation and work attitudes: evidence of the protean career era in Singapore

This website is not affiliated with document authors or copyright owners. This page is provided for informational purposes only. Unintentional errors are possible.