Evaluating income streams: a decision analysis approach

Article Abstract:

A study was conducted to analyze errors in decision making processes related to capital investments and planning situations. Extensions to conventional decision and risk analysis procedures were determined that take into account borrowing and lending opportunities without straining evaluation frameworks. Different preferences were then utilized to analyze uncertainties resolved in various periods. In addition, H. Raiffa's wildcatter problem was analyzed utilizing standard decision and risk analysis methods to characterize subsequent definitions and results. Results indicated that errors caused by considering background borrowing and lending decisions can be significant during substantial project risks and long delays in solving uncertainties.

Asset & Risk Management, Debt & Capital Management, Equipment Purchasing, Research, Purchasing, Management, Risk management, Capital investments, Financial management

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How decision makers evaluate alternatives and the influence of complexity

Article Abstract:

A case study approach was used to examine how decisionmakers evaluate alternatives during organizational decisionmaking and how such tactics and complexity affected success. A total of 317 strategic decisions were examined for this study, uncovering evaluation tactics that employed subjective, judgmental, bargaining and analytical inferences. Aside from the evaluation practices, data on task complexity were also quantified by the numbers of alternatives studied, number of criteria utilized and perceived difficulty of the evaluation task. Using statistical analysis, the impact of the aforementioned practices and conditions on decision outcomes was established. Findings and implications for further studies were discussed.

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