How to forecast the rollout response of mailing list from a sample test in direct mail

Article Abstract:

Performance of an initial test proves to be an important aspect in forecasting the rollout response of mailing list from a direct mail sample test. An empirical analysis shows that attainment of a good forecast regarding rollout response is possible through the conduct of an initial test wherein segmentation of a simple list into five equal groups is performed. Usage of an effective mailing strategy is also important since it leads to full utilization of a simple test. One of the guidelines that can be used in choosing an effective mailing strategy is the selection of a minimum response that mailers can accept.

Editorial, Analysis, Prediction theory, Mailing lists

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Weather as a strategic element in demand chain planning

Article Abstract:

Product demand forecasters looking to improve their 'demand chain' infrastructure should not overlook weather as an important element of their forecasts because it has a major influence on consumer buying behavior. Weather can affect consumer choice, store-traffic volume and demand for different products. A merchandise plan that incorporates weather effects involves historical analysis, assessment of missed opportunities, development of product demand forecast that uses forward-oriented weather forecasts, and formulation of future planning strategy based on the abovementioned phases.

Economic aspects, Environmental aspects, Weather, Consumer behavior, Demand (Economics), Sales forecasting

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A misconception about exponential smoothing

Article Abstract:

Forecasters using software programs such as Easy Forecaster can select an alpha value based on the minimization of Mean Absolute Error (MAE), Mean Absolute Percent Error (MAPE), or Mean Squared Error (MSE). Study results show that, in the presence of data that form a linear pattern, the selection of an MAE-based alpha value will provide better MAPE-based forecasts.

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