Interest Rate Trends in Election Years
Article Abstract:
The four year election cycle has a significant impact on the thirty per cent range, while rises prior to elections are less than one-tenth of that. Comparisons are made between investor returns on two year and four year holdings. Interest rates in presidential election times demonstrate a pattern: high and increasing rates signify new presidents while falling or low rates signify incumbent re-elections. Interest rates show a stronger pattern for re-election than do stock market levels. Thirty years ago, interest rates were not much of an issue. An historical and political analysis of the interest rates of the past thirty-five years and their interface with presidential elections is highlighted. Tables and a graph of interest rate movement and election trends are highlighted.
Publication Name: Futures: Magazine of Commodities & Options
Subject: Business, general
ISSN:
Year: 1984
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S and P Tightens as Futures Mature
Article Abstract:
While index futures matured their trade value grew nearer to their theoretical value. A graph of Standard and Poors 500 show arbitrage opportunities in relation to theoretical value. Basic links have become steadier in recent times. One estimate points to a two hundred and fifty basis point spread in cash futures. The true value of index futures can be found by a subraction of dividend value by similar holdings to the cash index and increasing via T-bill investment value during carrying. Dividend movement seasonality and interest rate volatility complicate valuation.
Publication Name: Futures: Magazine of Commodities & Options
Subject: Business, general
ISSN:
Year: 1984
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