Modelling and forecasting UK public finances
Article Abstract:
The United Kingdom has used a medium-term method in its fiscal policy which utilizes forecasts of public borrowing (PSBR) to analyze future and existing fiscal strategies. The government uses the public sector borrowing requirement to measure public deficits and account for increased taxation. However, PSBR has resulted in forecast errors due to inability to account for a recession in the early 1990s. An alternative model was proposed which considers elements of public spending as endogenous variables to more accurately account for changes in economic activity.
Publication Name: Fiscal Studies
Subject: Business, general
ISSN: 0143-5671
Year: 1998
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Minimum wages: possible effects on the distribution of income
Article Abstract:
The possible impact of a national minimum wage on income distribution is examined. Four sample minimum wages, ranging from 3.00 pounds sterling to 4.00 pounds sterling an hour, are tested. The lowest pay observed is an hourly rate of less than 4.50 pounds sterling among 30% of the labor supply. Most of the workers in the population are female. The Minimum wage is found to be a weak method of income redistribution, from the rich to the poor, since the majority of the poor are unemployed.
Publication Name: Fiscal Studies
Subject: Business, general
ISSN: 0143-5671
Year: 1996
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