Optimal linear opinion pools
Article Abstract:
An opinion pool is a technique for combining several individual opinions about an unknown quantity to establish one pooled opinion. A linear opinion pool, a popular method of combining opinions, is a pool in which linear combinations of the individual posterior distributions are established. Linear opinion pools have the advantage of producing simple mathematically tractable problems with explicit optimal solutions, but they have the disadvantage of being a poor technique for combining distributions. An optimal pool is presented for the situation in which the data are conditionally independent given an unknown quantity. The optimal weights for a linear opinion pool are presented for problems involving arbitrary distributions and quadratic loss functions when the data are not conditionally independent.
Publication Name: Management Science
Subject: Business, general
ISSN: 0025-1909
Year: 1991
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Optimal pricing policy for the service facility offering a set of priority prices
Article Abstract:
Consideration is offered of a profit-making service entity that has a different group of prices for the single service it provides. The customer who pays a higher price becomes part of a priority class that reduces time spent in the service system. The best number of priority classes is determined and a group of prices that results in higher revenue for the facility are determined. Full optimality is shown to result in effecting the pure last-in-first-out service discipline.
Publication Name: Management Science
Subject: Business, general
ISSN: 0025-1909
Year: 1988
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