Testing new direct marketing offerings: the interplay of management judgment and statistical models

Article Abstract:

A study was conducted to analyze the influence of managers' decisions associated with the design of tests on launching new products or services via direct marketing. The new product offering tests were supported by decisions that accommodated a segmentation scheme, a sampling plan and segment response rate projections. The performance of managers' judgments were evaluated against the accuracy resulting from direct marketing responses. Other propositions associated with the tasks expected from managers were also analyzed in the study. Results showed that an appropriate mix of management judgment and statistical frameworks can successfully increase profits related to new direct marketing offerings.

Direct Marketing, Market Research, Management Skills, Planning, Marketing, Executives, Career development, Management techniques, New products, Product introduction

---

Combining forecasts: operational adjustments to theoretically optimal rules.

Article Abstract:

R.L. Winkler's (1985) formula for the optimal combination of forecasts is optimal in theory, but a more effective method of combining forecasts can be obtained. The optimality of Winkler's formula depends on knowledge of the variances and covariances of the individual forecasts, which can only be estimated from previous forecasts. An operationally optimal combination of forecasts can be obtained by using a heuristic based on H. Akaike's Information Criterion (1974), which can be used to determine the parameter estimates that should be used in combined forecasts.

Forecasting, Combinatorial analysis, Winkler, R.L., Akaike, H.

---

Counting your customers: who are they and what will they do next?

Article Abstract:

A mathematical model is presented for assessing the likelihood that a customer with set transaction patterns is still active. The model is also designed to determine how many customers a firm has, to what extent its customer base has grown, what individuals are most likely to be active or inactive customers, and what individual and collective transaction levels can be anticipated. The information obtained can be helpful in evaluating the success of a new product and for targeting customer subgroups for promotions and advertising.

Customer relations

Similar abstracts:

• Abstracts: The new manufacturing environment: major trends for management accounting. Capital investment in the new manufacturing environment
• Abstracts: Justifying the acquisition of automated equipment. AutoMan - decision support software. Accountants on the line
• Abstracts: Open Systems accounting package (version 3). Red Wing Accounting Package. PC package review: accounting and finance

This website is not affiliated with document authors or copyright owners. This page is provided for informational purposes only. Unintentional errors are possible.