An Automatic Procedure for Box-Jenkins Model Building

Article Abstract:

A new procedure for updating and recreating forecast models based on Box-Jenkins model is described. It uses the most recent values of the statistical assumptions in the series. If they are within the ninety-five percent confidence limits of the existing forecast, the forecast model is considered adequate. If the data is outside of the ninety-five percent limit, a new model is built. All of this is done automatically with a computer program called Construction Automatique de Previsions Regies sous Intervention (CAPRI). Statistical analyses, formulae, graphs of time series data and a comparison of the test results of CAPRI, Box-Jenkins and Anderson models are included. Tables are included.

Forecasting, Modeling, Data modeling software, Time Series

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Software for model-building and simulation: an illustration of design philosophy

Article Abstract:

The decision support software ithink and the simulation software Stella II incorporate a design model for conceptualization, model construction, model simulation analysis and communication for expert and nonexperienced users. The design model is a result of research at High Performance Systems for use with the Apple Macintosh computer. A graphical user interface in both products facilitates conceptualization and structural mapping of formal models. The design model can further be enhanced by emerging technologies for model analysis, concrete model input and output and object-oriented model conceptualization frameworks.

Evaluation, Product/Service Evaluation, ithink (Decision support software), Stella II (Simulation software)

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Automatic clustering of business processes in business systems planning

Article Abstract:

Business processes in business systems planning were studied using hierarchical clustering. The hierarchical approach was integrated with the concepts of cohesion and coupling obtained from the modular design to determine the optimal number of clusters of business processes. Results show that optimal net cohesion and minimal net coupling occur at the level of 0.5 in the hierarchy of partitions.

Electronic computers, Electronic Computer Manufacturing, Digital Computers, Medium, Business Methods, Information Systems & Theory, Models, Business planning, Management information systems, Mainframe computers, Information systems, Clustering (Computers)

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