Better than guesswork?
Article Abstract:
Exchange rate forecasts are important when seeking to forecast inflation, but they are also difficult to achieve. Assumptions may be made that rates will not change, or that interest rates reflect future exchange rates, or balance of payments data can be used, and none of these methods provides accurate forecasts. Purchasing power parity can be used to provide data for forecasts that may be accurate over the longer term, but which tend not to be accurate over the shorter term. Other methods include a mix of the last two methods.
Publication Name: The Economist (UK)
Subject: Business, international
ISSN: 0013-0613
Year: 1999
User Contributions:
Comment about this article or add new information about this topic:
Taking a pounding
Article Abstract:
The high value of pound sterling has hit British manufacturers, while benefiting importers, and this can be illustrated by examining the fortunes of three engineering firms close to Manchester, England. Fluidair has moved to importing and away from manufacturing. Seddon Atkinson, owned by Iveco, in turn a Fiat company, is having to shed jobs, though there are some benefits from imported components being cheaper. Coates Engineering has also seen a drop in orders, and aims to diversify away from European markets.
Publication Name: The Economist (UK)
Subject: Business, international
ISSN: 0013-0613
Year: 2000
User Contributions:
Comment about this article or add new information about this topic:
Test-driving a new model
Article Abstract:
Currency-forecasting techniques use the idea of an equilibrium leve; that currencies are seen as likely to go back to. They include the idea of purchasing-power parity, and the notion that exchange rates achive current-account balance, the latter concept lying behind the Fundamental Equilibrium Exchange Rate. There are pressures against both the US dollar, if US stock prices fall, and the Japanese yen, so euros may be a good bet, whatever models may indicate.
Publication Name: The Economist (UK)
Subject: Business, international
ISSN: 0013-0613
Year: 2000
User Contributions:
Comment about this article or add new information about this topic:
- Abstracts: When debt is an asset. Tying deals up in Notts. Offord joins Charterhouse after a fortnight at CVC
- Abstracts: Dire straits? Faking it. Prepare for fireworks
- Abstracts: How fast and how far? Boiling oil. Khatami faces a treacherous second term
- Abstracts: Contributions from the floor. Doing the business. Interacting with the virtual
- Abstracts: Waiting for the new India. Harvesting India's reforms. India looks east