Central and Eastern Europe

Article Abstract:

Eastern and Central European economies are forecast to have slower growth in 1997 though growth in the Czech Republic, Romania and Bulgaria should rise in 1998. Inflation rose in the region in 1997. The current account deterioration should slow during 1997, though fiscal and monetary policy may have to be tightened in Poland. A currency board was launched in Bulgaria in Jul 1997, supported by the International Monetary Fund. The fate of this project is linked to the ability of the government to carry out structural reforms.

Central Europe

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Central and eastern Europe

Article Abstract:

Boris Yeltsin was victor in Russian presidential elections of 1996 and this is likely to help progress toward economic reform. Some progress has been achieved though there are also problems. Gross domestic product (GDP) dropped in real terms in 1st half 1996. Inflation has been reduced through tight monetary policy. A rise in government spending in addition to weakness in revenues is likely to mean that the government will not achieve a target for the budget deficit of 4% of GDP for 1996.

Economic policy, Russia

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Summary

Article Abstract:

An economic crisis in Asia has led to a deterioration in growth prospects for Asia, and there is likely to be an impact on growth world-wide in 1998. Japan is especially likely to be affected, but Western European and North America will also be hit to a lesser extent. The Asian economies in crisis, Indonesia, Thailand and S Korea, account for less than 5% of global output. Inflationary pressures will be reduced by the crisis, and interest rates are less likely to rise in the US.

1998 AD

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