Economists keep trimming their Asian growth forecasts: exports have been disappointing and problems in the financial sector are worse than expected

Article Abstract:

Asian finance analysts and observers are downgrading their original recovery forecasts for Asia, projecting a long drawn-out recovery phase which will last till 1999. This downgrading of recovery forecasts is due to the surfacing of many economic blunders, such as the weakness of many Asian financial sectors in managing their portfolios and the weakening of exports. Observers predict a growth of 0.1% for Japan, a 15% economic contraction for Indonesia and a 3.5% contraction for Thailand GDP, while South Korea is projected to have a growth of only 1.4% by the first quarter of 1999 after four succesive quarters of contraction.

Administration of Urban Planning and Community and Rural Development, Economic Development NEC, Economic development

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History could repeat itself; current economic crisis has parallels to two earlier catastrophes

Article Abstract:

The economic crisis gripping Asian economies shares similarities with the two biggest economic catastrophes of the past 125 years, the 1873 panic that triggered global deflation and recessions and the Great Depression of the 1930s. The parallelism is evident in the sinking demand, declining output, increasing unemployment and troubled banks of East Asian economies, notably Thailand, South Korea, Malaysia and Indonesia. The analogy with the deflationary era of the 1870s, on the other hand, can be seen in the similar state between the 1873-1896 period and the current world economy.

Asia, Financial analysis, National Income & Expenditure, Analysis, History, Great Depression, Depressions, Economic depressions

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