Forecasting Manpower Losses by the Use of Renewal Models

Article Abstract:

An essential element of a renewal forecasting model is completed length of service distribution, which results from past data estimations. This model concentrates on the manpower losses of an organization in light of demand in present conditions. Forecasting points toward difficulties in manpower quality due to high turnover levels. A survey is used to examine the reasons for quality losses and possible links between losses and wages. Survey results are employed to measure the meaning of wage expansions on model parameters. This model addresses a manpower planning project for the Turkish Electric Authority (TEA), a state agency with about fifteen thousand persons. In the projects beginning, extreme turnover for certain workers caused a critical situation. Accordingly, the model focuses on manpower losses for electrical engineers. Tables and graphs of related data are featured.

Case studies, Turkey, Electric power, Engineering models

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Converging Conflicting Forecasting Parameters in Forecasting Durable New Products Sales

Article Abstract:

It is essential to forecast sales of durable goods prior to their market introduction, although difficult. Parametric estimation is a necessary element of most product innovation forecasting models. Specific parameters often involve estimated values that disagree. A technique is developed for handling parameter values that are not in agreement for diffusion forecasting models. There are two main problems of forecasting life cycle curves of products before sales data can be had. One is developing a model which will permit the forecaster to have an entire product life cycle with a restricted number of parameters. The other is the development of estimation methods for key parameters. Tables and graphs of cumulative sales and distributions are included.

Models, Production management, Product life cycle

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