Modelling the oil producers - capturing oil industry knowledge in a behavioural simulation model

Article Abstract:

A system dynamics simulation model of oil producers is designed to improve understanding of oil market bahavior for global situations. The model is a result of simulating alternative future scenarios exploring the effects of structural changes in the energy industry on swing producers, supporters and independent producers. Political pressures within the OPEC and the commercial implications of non-OPEC producers are represented. The first phase in the two-phased model involves qualitative modeling to conceptualize issues and map major sectors and decision functions, while the second phase involves algebraic modeling and simulation.

Petroleum and Petroleum Products, Research, Prices and rates, Petroleum industry, Petroleum

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Knowledge elicitation in conceptual model building: a case study in modeling a regional Dutch health care system

Article Abstract:

The design and implementation of an alternative method to knowledge elicitation in system dynamics model building is presented. The method is an interactive modeling process based on the Estimate-Feedback-Talk approach. It involves the administration of a questionnaire, use of a workbook and a structured workshop as implemented in the Health Care Insurance Organization at Zwolle in the Netherlands. Each step in the process of model building and implementation as well as results are discussed in detail.

Case studies, Health services administration

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Executive knowledge, models and learning

Article Abstract:

Modeling and simulation methods are being used more extensively as instruments to support management decision making. Models can be characterized as maps capable of capturing and activating knowledge; frameworks to filter and organize knowlege; and microcosms for experimentation and learning. As such, the modeling process may be more suited to management team decision making processes than the value chain methodology and system dynamics.

Methods, Management

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