On the up: Barclays survey of inflation expectations - 'Basix'

Article Abstract:

The December BASIX survey showed the expected deterioration more clearly with most groups surveyed revising their future inflation views upwards to an average of 3.4%. The general public's view of future inflation has increased substantially, whilst specialists made smaller amendments. The deterioration partly reflects the recent increase in headline inflation, with the survey undertaken after RPI data for October was released. There is unlikely to be a quick reversal of the rise in expectations although the position is likely to be broadly stable during the first half of the year.

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International economy: North America

Article Abstract:

Real GDP in North America experienced growth every quarter from the second quarter of 1996 to the second quarter of 1998, which represented real GDP growth of 3.9%. This rate is not sustainable and economic indicators show that a slowdown is underway. The unemployment rate grew to 4.6% in September 1998 compared to 4.6% in May. A GM strike reduced industrial output and there has been a reduction in new orders for machinery products. External factors such the global economic crisis and attempts to impeach the US President have weakened confidence in the economy.

Economic aspects, North America

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Barclays survey of inflation expectations - "BASIX": mixed messages

Article Abstract:

A BASIX survey carried out in August and September 1998 indicated that four specialist groups have revised their inflation forecasts. Business economists reduced their forecast from 3.1% to 2/6% and the average figure was 3%. These figures reflect the low inflation rate for July of 3.3%. The general public do not share their confidence and predict that inflation will rise to 4.5% over the forthcoming year. Their concerns about possible rising inflation is likely to stimulate wage demands.

Banking industry, Forecasts and trends, Barclays PLC

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