An empirical analysis of qualitative management earnings forecasts

Article Abstract:

A sample of 183 qualitative management earnings forecast disclosure statements issued between 1979 and 1985 are examined to determine their predictive value. Findings indicate a linkage between these forecasts and percentage changes in realized earnings, the direction of forecast changes after announcement of the forecasts, and anomalous stock returns on the date of the announcement. Such linkage is found to be more pronounced for negative than positive forecasts.

Financial Forecasting, Business forecasting

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Modelling growth in the annual earnings time series

Article Abstract:

A growth model for forecasting annual earnings using only past time-series data is introduced. An estimation procedure for calculating the model's growth parameters which requires a maximum of only three previous data is also presented. Estimation results obtained show that the model's forecasts are superior to those generated by random walk models. The results indicate that past and future earnings' growth are positively correlated.

Corporate growth, Income forecasting

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Mathematical modelling and stochastic simulation of accounting alternatives

Article Abstract:

An analysis of stochastic simulation of accounting alternatives is presented. Simulation is applied in the development of a complex model which is unsolvable analytically.It is shown that computer-based simulation has been generally used in evaluating the effects of alternative accounting methods. Mathematical models may be applied in analyzing simple cases of accounting method variations.

Analysis, Accounting, Mathematical models

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