India: disillusionment
Article Abstract:
Indian share prices have fallen by 35% since a peak in Sep 1994. There was a rise in 1st half 1996 but this has since ceased. Indian economic growth is officially estimated at 6.6% for 1996 but could be 4% followed by recession for 1997 to 1998. Monetary policy has been loosened but interest rates are still over twice the inflation level, investment is dropping and there is weak consumer demand. There is also concern about India's budget deficit. Morgan Stanley notes that economic growth is still strong. Despite this, foreign investors may not find Indian shares attractive over the short term.
Publication Name: Investors Chronicle
Subject: Business
ISSN: 0261-3115
Year: 1996
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India: going up
Article Abstract:
The Indian stock market is undergoing a cyclical downturn, and share prices are likely to rise in the 12 months from Dec 1995, argues Morgan Stanley. High real interest rates and a ban on margin trading have affected share prices. Foreign investment has been affected by political uncertainty, but represents a small proportion of total investment. Real growth of gross domestic product (GDP) is estimated from 5.5% and 6% for 1996, despite a slowdown in economic growth.
Publication Name: Investors Chronicle
Subject: Business
ISSN: 0261-3115
Year: 1995
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Rueful reflections on the Indian rope-trick
Article Abstract:
India saw a major rise in share prices from mid 1993 to fall 1994, but prices have since fallen, and the Indian rupee is weak, which has exacerbated problems from foreign investors. India attracted foreign investment due to its liberalization policy and cheap labor. Problems such as market rigging and inadequate disclosure have led to disillusionment. There is also a danger of political change which could lead to the abandonment of liberalization.
Publication Name: Investors Chronicle
Subject: Business
ISSN: 0261-3115
Year: 1995
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