Inflationary fears place economic expansion at risk

Article Abstract:

Inflationary fears are growing and failure to stem them may lead to recession by the end of 1988. A weak dollar should help trade balances start to stabilize by the third quarter of 1987. Consumer prices will rise 3.6% in 1987 and 4.5% in 1988. Price increases will probably exceed five percent in 1989. The prime lending rate should rise to nine percent. Consumer spending will decelerate, especially in autos. Economic activity in general will average close to the growth rates of previous years, but recessionary tendencies will develop in 1988, possibly leading to a mild recession by year's end.

United States, Commerce

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Labor bottlenecks may end expansion by 1990

Article Abstract:

The economic forecast for 1989 appears good but a mild recession will follow in 1990. The industrial inflation and capacity bottlenecks have been eased but continued industrial growth will continue reducing unemployment to the natural unemployment level. As the natural level is approached, wages will increase and inflation will rise. The Federal Reserve will respond to wage increases by increasing interest rates to slow the economy. A mild recession will result in 1990. The recessionary tendencies should reduce demand for imports and improve the overall trade balance.

Employment forecasting

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Deflation, growth in 1986 - inflation, stagnation in 1987

Article Abstract:

An economic forecast for the US for the second quarter of 1986 through the first quarter of 1988 is presented. Declining oil prices will result in increased US purchasing power, which will in turn lead to greater economic activity. Fixed investments and housing activity will decline. Inflation should be lower than had been expected, due to lower oil prices. Interest rates should increase, but not dramatically.

Deflation (Finance), Deflation (Economics)

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