A message from psychologists to economists: mere predictability doesn't matter like it should (without a good story appended to it)

Article Abstract:

A study was conducted to examine the hypothesis that people have a general tendency to have difficulty understanding the relationship between properties that describe sets versus those that describe members of these sets, especially when they pertain to human behavior. This results in the failure to rely on a probabilistic contingency that does not go with a causal story. Therefore, people cannot be expected to be optimizers since they do not appreciate probability without a story.

Research, Decision-making, Decision making, Analysis, Human behavior, Probabilities, Probability theory

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Transportation improvements and the emergence of the factory: a reply to Jones

Article Abstract:

The lack of empirical evidence to support the thesis that a reduction in transport costs during the second half of the 18th century benefitted England's factory system more than putting-out is acknowledged, as empirical evidence was unavailable at the time the study was condcuted. However, it is mentioned that the direction of change during the period covered supports such argument.

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The emergence of the factory system in 18th century England: did transportation improvements really matter?

Article Abstract:

The thesis that a reduction in transport costs during the second half of the 18th century mainly benefitted the factory system in England more than putting-out is disputed both on methodological and empirical grounds. The methods employed by Rick Szostak to assess changes in relative costs apparently did not consider differences in the cost of labor, which is a major input.

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