Diagnostics for evaluating the value and rationality of economic forecasts
Article Abstract:
A number of studies, that sought to determine whether economic forecasts have predictive value, used a single statistical methodology based on the independence of the actual and predicted changes. The effect of alternative statistical methodologies on the result of these studies is examined.
Publication Name: International Journal of Forecasting
Subject: Economics
ISSN: 0169-2070
Year: 2003
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A note on musgrave asymmetrical trend-cycle filters
Article Abstract:
The implicit forecasts in the asymmetrical trend-cycle averages used in the X-11 seasonal adjustment method are described. The prediction revealed that squared errors of the implied predictors are always smaller or equal to those obtained using the least squares predictors.
Publication Name: International Journal of Forecasting
Subject: Economics
ISSN: 0169-2070
Year: 2003
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Exponential smoothing: the state of the art -- part II
Article Abstract:
A study uses state-space models to examine latest forecasting methods in exponential smoothing. Forecasting methods in time series are examined.
Publication Name: International Journal of Forecasting
Subject: Economics
ISSN: 0169-2070
Year: 2006
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