Inflation-unemployment trade-offs of Democrats, Republicans, and Independents: empirical evidence on the partisan theory

Article Abstract:

The partisan theory of interaction between political motivations and the macroeconomy implies that Democratic voters tend to be more concerned about unemployment rather than inflation policies while Republican voters worry more about inflation. A disaggregated Gallup Poll presidential popularity data shows that while both parties may have different policies concerning unemployment and inflation, party supporters and independents resort to similar trade-offs on both issues. It is suggested that Democratic and Republican politicians have similar policies on both issues to please voters.

Economic policy, Political aspects, Republican Party (United States), Democratic Party (United States), Macroeconomics

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Do group-specific or national unemployment rates influence perceptions?

Article Abstract:

The validity of three hypotheses concerning presidential popularity is tested to determine whether disaggregated social preference functions between inflation and unemployment can be modelled using the national unemployment rate rather than group-specific rates. The presidential popularity functions are fitted to groups classified by age, region, sex and race. Results indicate that national unemployment rates, not group-specific rates, may be used in disaggregatd presidential popularity functions used to assess social preference functions for particular social groupings.

Economic aspects, Presidents, Presidents (Government), Popularity

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Measurement errors in survey forecasts of expected inflation and the rationality of inflation expectations

Article Abstract:

Surveys testing the rationality of inflation expectations using regression models are found to be inaccurate. Resulting variable estimates are found to be biased if errors are discovered in inflation measurement. A study of a survey forecast shows that statistical errors in the expected rate of inflation are more important than errors found in the actual inflation rate. A test of rationalityproduces conflicting results which eventually leads to incorrect inflation expectations.

Evaluation, Measurement, Economic surveys

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