Macroeconomic forecasts correlaand the nature of economic shocks in Germany

Article Abstract:

Upon review of source evidence of forecast errors by 6 leading German economic research institutes on shock/demand shock scheme on business cycles data, it is concluded that correlations between explanations of shocks and errors being weak, previous forecasts were at least not fully rational.

Evaluation, Statistics, Economic research, Business cycles, Error analysis (Mathematics), Error analysis

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Structural breaks, ARIMA model and Finnish inflation forecasts

Article Abstract:

Comparable point forecasts from rolling regressions were found to perform better than both the corresponding point expectation proxies from questionnaires and the forecasts by the Research Institute of the Finnish Economy.

Finland, Usage, Economic aspects, Inflation (Finance), Regression analysis, Questionnaires, Time-series analysis, Time series analysis, Inflation (Economics), Research Institute of the Finnish Economy

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When do forecasters disagree? An assessment of German growth and inflation forecast dispersion

Article Abstract:

A study analyzing the dispersion of growth and inflation forecasts is presented. The study is based on the forecasts for 1970-2004 by a panel of German professionals.

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