Testing the rationality of Japanese GDP forecasts: the sign of forecast revision matters

Article Abstract:

The forecasts of the Japanese real GDP growth rate reveals that the Japanese forecasters are pessimistic when their forecast revisions (FRs) are positive, and they are optimistic when their FRs are negative. Further analyses shows that, there is no relation between the magnitude of average forecast errors and the magnitude of average FR.

Evaluation, Economics, Gross domestic product, Comparative analysis, Economic forecasting, Economic theory

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Does the natural selection mechanism still work in severe recessions? Examination of the Japanese economy in the 1990s

Article Abstract:

The working of the natural selection mechanism of economic Darwinism in severe recessions is investigated. Using micro data and experimental results, the malfunctioning of the mechanism in severe recessions is proven.

Science & research, Research, Economic aspects, Evolution (Biology), Recessions, Evolution

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Density function of piecewise linear transformation

Article Abstract:

Economic dynamic models to examine long-run statistical behavior of chaotic dynamics are presented.

Chaos theory

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