UK assessment

Article Abstract:

The United Kingdom looks set to enter a mild recession, though confidence has been stabilised by cuts in interest rates and an improvement in financial markets. There are risks from a number of factors such as a strong pound sterling, and excess inventories. The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) would be mistaken if it assumed that enough had been done to prevent a downturn becoming unnecessarily deep. Interest rates could be reduced to 4% if recession becomes deep. The government has little leeway in terms of fiscal policy.

Economic Programs, Administration of Economic Programs, Economic policy, Monetary policy

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UK assessment

Article Abstract:

The United Kingdom economy could avoid a technical recession, since consumer confidence appears to have strengthened. There are still problems with exports and corporate profits, and it should not be assumed that economic recovery will occur. There is a lessening risk from inflationary pressures, and average earnings growth dropped in Dec 1998 compared with May of that year. Interest rates may be reduced due to low inflation, and they could be reduced for some time.

Prices, Inflation (Finance), Economic indicators, Inflation (Economics)

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UK assessment

Article Abstract:

Trends in the British economy are assessed, including the likelihood of a soft landing, and interest rate trends.

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