Uncertain demographic futures and social security finances

Article Abstract:

Uncertain futures of demographic factors such as mortality, fertility, productivity growth and interest rates will significantly affect the social security system. Fertility has been found to contribute the most uncertainty, followed by productivity growth, interest rates, and mortality. For a span of 25 years, demographic uncertainty will create a standard deviation only one-fifth as wide as the fully stochastic model. However, demographic uncertainty will create a standard deviation as much as two-thirds as wide as the fully stochastic model for a span of 75 years.

Population, Models, Finance, Forecasts and trends, Social security, Forecasting

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Immigration, social security, and broader fiscal impacts

Article Abstract:

The impact of immigration on taxes is examined, and taxes for nonimmigrants are likely to be raised initially and then lowered as a result of immigration.

Tax research

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Do immigrant inflows lead to native ouflows?

Article Abstract:

The impact of immigration on urban skill distribution in the US in the 1980s is examined in detail.

Research, Labor market

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