Inventories in macroeconomic fluctuations: the stylized facts
Article Abstract:
A Seminar for Mathematical Economics methodology is used to analyze 15 nations in terms of cyclical behavior of inventory investment and gross fixed capital formation. The analysis concerned identification of cycles, cycle length and its significance through visual examination, detrending, significant structure test and spectral analysis. The results show that inventory investment exhibited brief cycles of two and a half to four years. On the other hand, the gross fixed capital formation had long cycles of six to eight years or longer than 12 years.
Publication Name: International Journal of Production Economics
Subject: Engineering and manufacturing industries
ISSN: 0925-5273
Year: 1992
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Using mixed frequency data to improve macroeconomic forecasts of inventory investment
Article Abstract:
The relationship of inventory investment in business cycles is analyzed using the combination of high-frequency observations with an econometric model forecast. The Michigan Quarterly Econometric Model of the US Economy is analyzed to find out if better predictions of inventory investment can be obtained. The results show that using small groups of monthly indicators can give improved forecasts of real GNP but not inventory investments. However, the forecasts obtained were superior to those taken solely from a macroeconometric model used.
Publication Name: International Journal of Production Economics
Subject: Engineering and manufacturing industries
ISSN: 0925-5273
Year: 1992
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Observation errors and inventory cycles
Article Abstract:
A macroeconomic model is used to explain the cyclical characteristics of fixed and inventory investment. The model is used on detrented data of Germany, the US and the UK. It uses the second order accelerator of investment and production as its conceptual tool. The results show that fixed investment follows a weakly damped cycle of six and a half to eight years and indicates a strong inertia of investment. A shorter cycle of three to four and a half years is more damped, but the regularity of the cycle is affected by measurement errors.
Publication Name: International Journal of Production Economics
Subject: Engineering and manufacturing industries
ISSN: 0925-5273
Year: 1992
User Contributions:
Comment about this article or add new information about this topic:
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