Evaluating non-structural measures of the business cycle

Article Abstract:

The consumption-based method introduced by Cochrane is highly favored among the non-structural methods of the business cycle, according to a study. The consumption-based measure, when employed to US data, complies with the dates of recessions, as determined by the NBER. Results of the study also reflect the strong negative relation between the cyclical components of productivity and hours, reinforcing the challenge to models in which business cycles are driven primarily by technology shocks.

Business Methods, Analysis, Consumption (Economics), Business planning

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Interpreting procyclical productivity: evidence from a cross-nation cross-industry panel

Article Abstract:

A survey was conducted across an international panel of industrial representatives to gather information on the procyclical nature of labor productivity to demand shocks. Survey results show that procyclicality is intimately associated with the unemployment rate, due to the effects of 'labor hoarding' in the US and 'job hoarding' in Europe. US firms wish to avoid training costs and European workers wish to avoid unemployment.

Productivity, Manufacturing, Economic aspects, Employment, Employee training, Labor productivity

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Inflation uncertainty and excess returns on stocks and bonds

Article Abstract:

The relationship between inflation uncertainty and excess returns on stocks and bonds is studied. Inflation uncertainty effects are determined by comparing mean excess returns with those expected by a hypothetical investor who considers inflation forecasts as known certainties. Results show that the ignorance of inflation uncertainty is not as risky at it seems since this leads to minimal pricing errors.

Research, Inflation (Finance), Investment analysis, Securities analysis, Inflation (Economics)

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