Farr's law applied to AIDS projections

Article Abstract:

Farr's Law of Epidemics, first proposed in 1840, states that the graphs of epidemics have a tendency to rise and fall in a symmetrical pattern, resembling a bell-shaped curve. William Farr was the first to contend that the forces controlling epidemics can be understood through scientific inquiry, which then may be expressed in mathematical terms. In the early 20th century, application of the theories set forth by John Brownlee enhanced the mathematical aspects of Farr's theory and suggested the bell curve configuration. Farr asserted that epidemics proceed in a pattern where new cases rise to a crest, which is then followed by a constant deceleration period. The authors have analyzed the current outbreak of acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS) in the United States using Farr's Law of Epidemics. The limitations of this analysis are emphasized; only adult populations were represented in the data. Also, the new criteria defined by the Centers for Disease Control in September 1987 broaden the definition of AIDS and have expanded the number new cases reported. This study was undertaken in 1985, using data from public health statistics compiled from 1982 through 1987. It was concluded that the incidence of new AIDS cases peaked in the U.S. in late 1988 and since then, the incidence of new cases has begun to decline and will reach a low point by the middle of the 1990s. Confirmation of the applicability of the Farr-Brownlee hypothesis to AIDS will most likely be possible by next year as new data accumulates. Although the number of new cases is expected to diminish, the development of more effective treatments for AIDS, which will extend the survival time of those with the disease, will cause the population of those individuals requiring treatment to grow. (Consumer Summary produced by Reliance Medical Information, Inc.)

Evaluation, AIDS (Disease), Epidemics

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The epidemiologic necropsy for abdominal aortic aneurysm

Article Abstract:

Determining the number of cases of an illness in a given population has traditionally been done through screening surveys of living subjects. A new tool for determining disease prevalence is the epidemiologic necropsy, or autopsy survey. One disease entity so studied was the abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA), which involves a ballooning and thinning of the walls of the aorta, the body's largest artery, as it passes through the abdomen. These aneurysms are a not uncommon cause of death, but their prevalence in the population in general is unknown. A series of over 7,000 autopsies from the same hospital, in cases where no diagnosis of AAA was suspected, were reviewed to determine how frequently AAA was diagnosed after death. The autopsy detection rate of AAA in men was 81 of 4,155, and in women, 28 of 3,142. A comparison of these results with ultrasound screenings of living populations revealed similar prevalences of unsuspected AAA. The validity of epidemiologic autopsy as a research tool is still to be determined. These preliminary results suggest that such autopsy reviews will be useful, but more must be done, involving hospitals in different geographic areas, to determine if the epidemiological technique will reveal the true incidence of disease in given populations. (Consumer Summary produced by Reliance Medical Information, Inc.)

Statistics, Autopsy, Aortic aneurysms, Aortic aneurysm

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Interim Guidelines for Investigation of and Response to Bacillus anthracis Exposures. (From the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention)

Article Abstract:

Techniques are provided for collecting and testing environmental samples for the presence of Bacillus anthracis. This is the bacterium that causes anthrax. Usually, anthrax is caused by spores produced by the bacterium, which can be inhaled, swallowed, or come in contact with skin.

Environmental aspects, Anthrax

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