The art of forecasting: a wager

Article Abstract:

Professor Donald M. McCloskey's assertion that economists are unable to make accurate predictions is perceived to be untrue on a long-term basis. Government forecasts have their share of dangers because of the frequency in which they are made. However, long-term forecasting is easier, and a wager is proposed to support this claim. Certain predictions can be made with certainty because similar predictions made in the past have already proven the outcomes.

Analysis, Forecasts and trends, Economics, Beliefs, opinions and attitudes, Economic forecasting, McCloskey, Donald M.

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Market constraints on central bank policy

Article Abstract:

Traders use more than 200,852 Reuters screens to analyze international monetary policies, and the monitoring of foreign exchange transactions has become a sophisticated and highly competitive trade. The increase in the efficiency of global capital markets has had a positive effect on the central banking systems. Futures contracts based on German, French, British, Japanese short- and long-term interest rates can be monitored.

Evaluation, Economic aspects, Economic policy, Central banks, Capital market, Capital markets, Monetary policy

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