Monetary policy, market prices, and supply-side forecasting

Article Abstract:

Markets forecast economic variables such as growth and inflation and act as a medium for the exertion of governmental influences on the economy. Empirical analyses of market indicators provide accurate results. An analysis of the empirical data for the years between 1980 and 1990 reveals that the short-term interest rate is not considered in the prediction of economic trends in the United States. The years since 1980 have witnessed accurate, real-life forecasts, based on changes in the interest rates.

Capital market, Capital markets

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Supply-side forecasting: theory and practice

Article Abstract:

David Ransom analyzes, in two papers, the role of short-term interest rate as a predictor of output growth, and the theoretical supply-side theory for the forecasting of short-term interest rates. His model for the prediction of output growth provides more accurate forecasts than Blue Chip forecasts, and eliminates the need for the employment of professional economists in private sector and government agencies. However, short-term interest rates were not an accurate leading indicator in 1990-91.

Evaluation, Ransom, David

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